The United States intelligence participation: the next 5 years, global conflict increased risk, Trump Inauguration Day fraught with grim possibilities
The U.S. intelligence agency warned that the incoming Trump administration of the United States will face a dark and difficult situation in the world, expected future risk between five years and countries internal conflict will be increased to the highest level since the cold war.
The National Intelligence Council under the office of the director of national intelligence research institutions in the global trends released Monday pointed out: the paradox of progress report, in the next few years the world outlook is not optimistic about the factors, including stronger Russia and Chinese, regional conflicts, terrorist infestation, nationalism, income inequality increased climate change and weak economic growth etc..
The Committee issued a global trend assessment report every four years, the latest report was released in the first 11 days before Trump became president of the United states. The report, compiled by intelligence agencies and academics, forecasts the global political, social, economic and technological trends from now to 2035.
In addition, retired lawyer from Miami Teresa Shu Ke plans on Trump’s inauguration day, January 21st morning at the Capitol in Washington on a scale of 200 thousand people within the female demonstrations, at present, the organizers have received police permission, registration to participate in the activities of the people has more than 100 thousand people. (source: Washington Post)
[comment] the U.S. intelligence agency’s report, although the same as in previous years to avoid the analysis of U.S. policy, but stressed the need to face the complex challenges of Trump’s campaign commitments. He said he wanted to improve relations with Russia, to protect the economy in a fairly competitive environment with China, to allow American businesses to return to the United States to create jobs, and to fight terrorism.
As the global economic, political and technological forces change, the U.S. leadership is weakening. Over the next five years, tensions within and between different countries will rise. Whether it is good or bad, the development of the global situation is the end of the post Cold War era of American hegemony.
Due to the increase of American political uncertainty, coupled with some western countries experienced a sudden incident, tends to be self closed, international human rights situation and conflict prevention mechanism also weakened, this will encourage China with Russia to challenge American influence. The United States must maintain ties with traditional Western allies to maintain its influence.
The liberalism of the West and its allies after the second world war is being threatened by right-wing and left-wing populism, making it harder to govern. People ask the government to bring security and development, but the economic downturn, increasing distrust, differentiation and other issues will affect the government’s performance.
The Western democracies will become increasingly difficult to adhere to the principle of unity and maintain, there may be more countries veto international cooperation projects, many communication channels may also cause people to receive error messages, and differentiation. As the report points out, it is much more difficult to work with other countries and manage them in the way that people want..
The challenge is not to trigger hot, but may lead to the government or the relevant international organizations to increase the risk of wrong judgment, so that the risk of the outbreak of the international conflict rose to the highest level since the cold war.
From 2008 to 2009 after the financial crisis, the major economies in the face of weak demand and high debt, as well as the challenge of global, they seek recovery in must also deal with a shrinking working team and declining productivity.
As noted in the report, from the perspective of the global economic situation, economic growth in the short term will continue to be weak, governments, institutions and companies are still trying to get out of the plight of the economic downturn.
Trump will be local time in the United States in January 20, 2017 was sworn in as the forty-fifth president of the United States, it is reported that extremist organization Islamic state (ISIS) is planning to launch the terrorist attack, to the red blood of Trump’s presidential inauguration ceremony.
It is reported that tracking ISIS communications media security analysts pointed out that ISIS is plotting to launch a massive attack on the day Trump inauguration. It is said that ISIS has recruited a large number of new English speaking members in recent months to facilitate the transfer of information on the eve of action. For weeks, ISIS is stepping up production with English subtitles special edition promotional video, and after a brief shutdown after the re start promotion posting on social networking sites.
Earlier in the campaign, Trump has repeatedly promised the president will make every effort to eliminate ISIS, such as an additional 30 thousand U.S. soldiers in combat operations, refused to rule out the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons.
However, ISIS did not oppose or fear of Trump was elected president, on the contrary, they even look forward to support Trump in the White House, the reason is that the often made controversial remarks the billionaire is the best enemy can help ISIS to recruit more members to complete the mission.
Despite Trump’s inauguration in a few days, the U.S. intelligence agencies and special forces will raise vigilance. But in the United States, Chinese enterprises and employees still need a high degree of vigilance, strict travel management, away from being able to attack the soft target around to avoid participating in or near any rally, make plans to protect the safety. At the same time, it is recommended that Chinese personnel carefully go to the above areas, focus on local media reports, vigilance, pay attention to safety precautions. Outside the staff should strengthen security measures and expected traffic disruption, and possible demonstrations, violent terrorist activities and local unrest risk, at the same time, the ban should strictly follow the United States military and government departments. (source: ancu risk information company)
The British people: March 4th London area mass demonstrations behind NHS
2017年3月4日，伦敦地区将有一场大规模的民众示威游行，旨在力保公有化医疗NHS体系（National Health Service，英国国家医疗服务体系），叫停政府的医疗健康服务私有化计划。预计当日中午12点，游行人员将从塔维斯托克广场（Tavistock Square）出发行进至英国议会，最早在当日17点结束。目前，大约有17000民众表示了参与意愿。（来源：iCover全球安全研究信息数据库）
In March 4, 2017, there will be a massive public demonstrations in the London area, to secure public health system (NHS National Health Service, the British national health service system, medical and health services) to halt the government’s privatization planning. The day is expected at 12 noon, demonstrators from Tavistock square (Tavistock Square) issue to the British Parliament, the end of early in the day 17 points. Currently, about 17000 people expressed willingness to participate. (source: iCover global security research information database)
During this period, the people involved in the rally may gather around the British Parliament building, do not rule out the possibility of a conflict with the British police or low intensity of small-scale damage. Chinese people are advised to carefully go to the region, focusing on local media reports, vigilance, attention to safety precautions. In the staff will be expected to strengthen traffic disruption and security measures, as well as possible demonstrations, violent terrorist activities and local unrest risk, at the same time, the local government should strictly follow the ban, the latest action and follow the instructions issued by the authority. (source: ancu risk information company)
Tanzania: Zanzibar Revolution Day public holiday more sensitive
Zanzibar revolution day, January 12, 2017. According to tradition, the island of Zanzibar and government agencies, the national flag and the color of Tanzania and Zanzibar, the chief executive must dignitaries at the scene in Zanzibar, ambassadors, non-governmental organizations and international organizations will be invited to participate in the commemoration, very grand. Focus on the activities of the site and the surrounding areas of security and inspection, material will be strengthened. (source: iCover global security research information database)
[comments] suggested that Chinese personnel to participate in the above areas to participate in the celebration, to avoid all kinds of public gatherings, local media attention, vigilance, attention to safety precautions. Outside the staff should strengthen security measures and expected traffic disruption, and possible demonstrations, violent terrorist activities and local unrest risk, at the same time, the local government should strictly follow the ban, the latest action and follow the instructions issued by the authority. (source: ancu risk information company)
Puerto Rico: Northwest repair project may lead to water off
Since the beginning of January 10, 2017, Puerto Rico northwest Atillo (Hatillo) and Camui (Camuy) area, due to drinking water pipeline maintenance card Atillo Paz (Capaez), and Camui’s sub Guarda (Yeguada), (Membrillo), Bristol door Luo zanga Adams (Zanjas) and Abra HTC (Abra Honda) and so on. Possible water pressure is too small even for the case off. At present, it is not clear when to return to normal. Authorities show that water shortages may continue for some time. Such a situation continues for more than 1 weeks, may lead to local people called for the end of the water shortage demonstrations. (source: iCover global security research information database)
[comment] suggested that Chinese personnel transit in the northwestern area of Puerto Rico, enough to buy bottled water, saving water, and timely make emergency plan of the water shortage, attention to local media reports, Caution! Preparedness. At the same time, in the short period of restoration of water supply, drinking, the need to boil the water and lasted for more than 5 minutes to reduce the risk of drinking. In addition, during this sensitive period, outside personnel should avoid going to various types of large gatherings, and should still be expected to demonstrate the possibility of local unrest risks, while the local government should strictly abide by the ban. (source: ancu risk information company)
Indonesia: Tiger Airways (Tigerair) multiple trips Australia direct flights to Bali Island flights canceled
As of January 12, 2017, due to the Indonesian government regulation change requests, Australia airline (Tigerair) company has canceled the trip to Bali Island flights to Denpasar. In addition, Tiger Airways Company daily round-trip between Bali Island, Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth flights, also in the re examination, it is not clear when to return to normal. (source: iCover global security research information database)
[comments] suggested that people outside the air travel should be reserved for more time to pay attention to the flight situation in the region in advance, to avoid excessive delays, and make a more flexible business travel arrangements. (source: ancu risk information company)
Mexico: Northeast Tasmania (Tamaulipas) on the Mexican border residents cross-border congestion intensified
In recent days, Mexico is located in the northeast of the Mexican border Tamaulipas S (Tamaulipas) the nearby port city, such as the Hispaniola (Nuevo Laredo), Alfredo Reinosa (Reynosa) and Matamoros (Matamoros) and other places are the driver of the car up to the United States transit refueling situation. At present, the Mexico government plans to terminate the oil price subsidy policy in March 2017, the price of gasoline to gradually return to the market pricing mechanism, resulting in ink of domestic oil and gas prices, Mexico people had to travel to the United States border gas, and this phenomenon will continue. (source: iCover global security research information database)
[comments] the sharp rise in oil prices triggered discontent in Mexico. Even Japan, a number of domestic city protests, road closures and vandalism incident. At the same time, part of the road were blocked, causing serious traffic problems, looting and other illegal acts have supermarkets in some areas.
Because the Mexican border city residents flocked to the United States cross-border gas will lead to the border line between the two countries, traffic congestion and other unpredictable situation, overland transit time increased. Chinese people are advised to carefully go to the region, focusing on local media reports, vigilance, attention to safety precautions. In personnel should still expected overland traffic delay, interruption and strengthen security measures, and possible demonstrations and local unrest risk, also should strictly follow the ban America and Mexico port management, police and government departments. (source: ancu risk information company)
Source: ancu risk information company
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