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摘要:长期以来,对公信贷业务都是商业银行业务布局中的“大头”,然而,从2016年的信贷数据来看,对公业务相对个人信贷来说却发展缓慢。
本报记者 杨泥娃报道
尽管2016年的银行业成绩单还未出炉,但从已发布的对公信贷数据报告却可以窥见一斑。
近日,标点财经研究院发布了《2016中国银行业全样本报告》,对5家国有银行、11家股份制银行、41家城商行、13家农商行、10家外资行,共计80家商业银行的对公业务条线经营数据进行了统计。
长期以来,对公信贷业务都是商业银行业务布局中的“大头”,然而,从2016年的信贷数据来看,对公业务相对个人信贷来说却发展缓慢。
实体经济疲软、不良资产率不断攀升,让银行近乎“裸泳”,向“轻资产”转型成了商业银行的必然选择。
一个信息安全动画小故事,随意丢弃损毁的U盘,被保洁员拾走,泄了密……
同时,个人零售业务不断超越对公业务的背后,正是消费金融在国民经济中的占比不断提升所带来的必然影响,随着消费金融的不断发展,零售业务已逐渐成为商业银行的转型新目标。
经历了短暂“阵痛”,2016年下半年实体经济已渐露回暖迹象,促进实体经济发展,推进基础设施建设还将是宏观经济接下来的发展重点。在此背景下,新一年里银行业的信贷结构又将发生怎样的变化?信贷投放又将重点集中在哪些领域?
对公信贷增速不敌个贷
作为最重要的利润来源,“信贷业务”一直是商业银行对公业务中的基石。根据近日发布的《2016中国银行业全样本报告》可见,尽管顶着“不良率攀升”和“宏观经济疲软”这两座大山,依然没有阻碍各家银行对公信贷业务继续发展的脚步。
其中,五大国有商业银行在对公信贷规模上仍具有明显优势,其平均公司类存款余额55998.64亿元,同比增幅8.04%;平均公司类贷款余额52312.83亿元,同比增幅4.82%。
城商行更是表现不凡,平均公司类存款余额1900.35亿元,同比增幅19.75%,公司类贷款余额1107.12亿元,同比增幅17.8%。
然而,值得关注的是,尽管公司类贷款增长态势不减,但增速却已明显低于个人贷款的增速。
资料显示,16家国有行和股份制银行平均公司类贷款余额22983.77亿元,增长9.8%,而平均个人贷款余额为12662.86亿元,增长19.12%,平均个人贷款余额增幅高于平均公司类贷款余额增幅近10个百分点。
各部门要按照“谁主管谁负责、谁运营谁负责”的原则,切实负责本系统、行业内各类信息网络和重要信息系统的安全管理工作。
与此同时,根据2016年第三季度的数据统计,中国商业银行净息差已收窄至2.24%,相较2012年第三季度2.77%的峰值下降了0.53个百分点。其中,五大国有行较上年同期平均下降0.47个百分点,8家股份行平均下降0.21个百分点,三家城商行平均下降0.31个百分点。
安邦智库(ANBOUND)发文指出,商业银行资本充足率的恶化,银行发展模式过于粗放,高资本消耗业务占比过大,在经济下行、企业信用风险不断暴露的情况下,银行面临的现实风险快速累积。长期看,商业银行须加速向“轻资本”、“轻成本”做经营发展转型,更加重视低资本消耗和不消耗资本的业务,调整资产负债结构及业务结构,提升产品创新能力和资金定价能力,提升银行的业务整合能力和财务管控能力,增加非利息盈利来源。而在当前国内缺少优质信贷项目、呆坏账持续攀升的情况下,为了降低资本消耗、缩小承载风险的体量,银行业将不得不进一步扩大个人房贷按揭业务以及个人消费信贷,进一步拓展财富管理、资产管理业务以及中间业务。同时,银行对于实体企业的放贷也将更加谨慎,以控制贷款增长,这不可避免会给很多中小企业以及产能过剩企业带来更多冲击。
那么,个人信贷增速高于对公信贷增速是否也意味着当前银行业向“轻资产”的运营模式转型?
对此,中国社科院金融所银行研究室主任曾刚在接受《中国产经新闻》记者采访时指出,个人信贷业务占比超过对公贷款已成趋势,但这个趋势并不能完全套用“轻资产”的发展模式。原则上,个人借贷的风险权重会比对公信贷低一些,但“轻资产”运营更多地是银行从信贷资产向非信贷资产等风险权重更低的资产做调整,例如向表外调整,或向中间业务收入转型等这类完全不带来信用风险的业务。个人借贷比例提升一定程度上能体现出银行转型“轻资产”的倾向,但不能完全代表“轻资产”的发展规则。
消费增长促个贷攀升
实际上,真正影响个人业务与对公业务占比的,是整个宏观经济的运行结构。
曾刚表示,过去几年经济结构发生了重要变化,根本上决定个人信贷增长的原因还是消费在经济增长中的贡献度正在上升。
“我们现在经济增长结构已从原来的由投资和进出口(主导)转向消费主导的经济增长模式,尤其是2016年前三季度,消费对GDP的贡献已经超过70%,投资对经济贡献度为36.8%,出口却是负的。经济增长贡献度占比高意味着经济活动对信贷资源的需求,从这个经济结构的角度来讲,包括消费金融在内的个人金融领域成为热点,发展非常快,与之相关的金融市场和需求就会以个人为主。”曾刚说。
统计局的数据也佐证了这一点。2016年前三季度,国民生产总值同比增长6.7%,其中,固定投资上涨8.2%,社会消费品零售涨幅则高达10.4%。
与此同时,曾刚指出:“2016年,楼市的反弹在一定程度上加快了个人按揭住房信贷的涨幅,但实际上,从2012年开始,个人信贷就呈现上升趋势,房地产热只是让平稳增长有加速的趋势。”
“2016年的个人资产业务新增占比已明显高于对公业务。”大连农商银行某高层管理者对《中国产经新闻》记者表示,在消费升级的大背景下,消费指数在经济增长指数中占比持续上升,各家银行都在谋求向零售转型。
一直以来,商业银行在对公以及零售业务方面也都各有所长,随着经济结构的不断调整,许多对公业务的“高手”也开始转向,试图瓜分零售业务这块蛋糕。
《2016中国银行业全样本报告》显示,在股份制银行中,素来以对公业务见长的中信银行公司信贷额度仍排在首位,其公司类贷款余额17147.92亿元,比上年同期增长12.45%。
但即便如此,中信银行布局零售业务的倾向也十分明显。就在近日,中信与百度联手打造的百信银行获批,百信银行成为首家作为独立法人的直销银行。在许多业内人士看来,这是中信基于自身优势与百度的科技优势“强强联合”来拓展零售业务的第一步。而早在2013年,同样以对公业务见长的民生银行就是直销银行圈里“第一个吃螃蟹的”。
随着百信银行的落地,直销银行的申请又掀起了一轮小高潮。对此,曾刚指出,直销银行的兴起是新形势下零售业务发展的趋势,由于客户的服务习惯从线下服务迁移到线上,因此销售渠道发生了改变,手机银行正逐渐成为发展重点。
“直销银行和零售业务有一定关系,但并不是零售业务的全部。”曾刚补充道,“但并不是因为要发展零售业务才做直销银行,而是因为客户渠道变了,更愿意用互联网接受服务,所以需要发展直销银行与之相配合。”
实体兴则对公业务有望反弹
如今,实体经济依然疲软,退潮之后裸石亮相,银行业资产质量依然堪忧,那么,面对“风雨欲来”的2017年,商业银行将如何布局自身资产结构和信贷投向?
上述大连农商银行高层管理者表示,银行将继续谋求“轻资产”转型,结合当前宏观经济的运行态势,个人业务仍将是接下来的发展主力。
“个人信贷业务将主要投向三个方面:第一,是个人住房信贷业务,这方面市场空间依然很大;第二,个人消费类信贷,随着消费升级,消费类需求仍然是重点;第三,农村的个人信贷业务将有很大的空间,随着国家对农村的各项政策扶持,农户的消费需求逐渐上升,并且土地确权后,可以释放大量农村市场财富。”上述高层管理者说。
曾刚则对对公业务的前景相对看好,他表示,对公业务与零售业务的比例关系实际上是和经济结构有关的,银行在对公与对私的业务布局方面,要看经济总需求的路径,根据消费和投资的比例来决定占比。
“从这个趋势上看,目前经济发展的重点还将是基础设施建设,并且地方投融资平台需求很大,银行可以以直接融资和PPP的模式参与进去,因此,接下来对公业务可能会出现一些反弹。”曾刚说。
与此同时,曾刚指出,从2016年二季度、三季度的经济数据来看,实体经济呈现回暖态势,意味着企业端在经济结构中的占比会回升,因此企业端需求可能会更旺盛,接下来对公业务领域将会有所发展,有可能在银行业务的占比上有所回升。
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Abstract: for a long time, the public credit business is the big head of the commercial bank’s business layout, however, from the credit data in 2016, the development of public business relative to personal credit is slow.
Newspaper reporter Yang Niwa reports
Although the 2016 Banking Report has not been released, but has been released from the corporate credit data report can be seen.
Recently, punctuation Financial Research Institute released the 2016 Chinese banking full sample report, the 5 state-owned banks, 11 joint-stock banks, 41 city commercial banks, 13 agricultural firms, 10 foreign firms, a total of 80 commercial banks on the operation data of the public and business lines of statistics.
For a long time, the public credit business is the layout of the commercial banking in the big head, however, from the credit data in 2016, the public business is relatively slow development of personal credit.
Weakness in the real economy, the rising rate of non-performing assets, so banks almost naked, to asset light became an inevitable choice for commercial banks.
At the same time, the individual retail business beyond behind Corporate Banking Services, consumer finance is accounted for in the national economy and constantly improve the inevitable impact, with the continuous development of consumer finance and retail business has gradually become the new target of transformation of commercial banks.
Experienced a brief throes of the second half of 2016, the real economy has been showing signs of recovery, promote the development of the real economy, and promote infrastructure construction will be the next focus of macroeconomic development. In this context, what will happen to the credit structure of the banking industry in the new year? Credit will focus on what areas?
The credit loan growth is not the enemy
As the most important source of profit, credit business has been the cornerstone of commercial banks in the public business. According to the recently released 2016 China banking full sample report shows that despite the rising non-performing rate and Macroeconomic weakness of the two mountain, still did not hinder banks continue to develop public credit business steps.
Among them, the five major state-owned commercial banks still have obvious advantages in the credit scale, the average corporate deposits of 5 trillion and 599 billion 864 million yuan, an increase of 8.04%; the average loan balance of the company 5 trillion and 231 billion 283 million yuan, an increase of 4.82%.

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City firm is extraordinary performance, the average deposit balance of 190 billion 35 million yuan, an increase of 19.75%, the company’s loan balance of $110 billion 712 million, an increase of 17.8%.
However, it is noteworthy that, despite the company’s loan growth is not reduced, but the growth rate has been significantly lower than the growth rate of personal loans.
Statistics show that the 16 state-owned companies and joint-stock banks for the average loan balance of 2 trillion and 298 billion 377 million yuan, growth of 9.8%, while the average growth of 19.12% personal loans amounted to 1 trillion and 266 billion 286 million yuan, and the average personal loans is higher than the average corporate loans increased by nearly 10 percentage points.
At the same time, according to data from the third quarter of 2016, China’s commercial banks net interest margin has narrowed to $2.24%, compared with the peak of the third quarter of 2012 decreased by 0.53 percentage points. Among them, the five state-owned banks over the same period last year, an average decline of 0.47 percentage points, the average of the shares fell by an average of 0.21 percentage points, the average decline in the proportion of the city of the city of 0.31 percentage points in.
Ampang think-tank (ANBOUND) issued a document pointed out that the deterioration of the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks, the bank development mode is too extensive, high proportion of business capital consumption is too large, in the economic downturn, enterprises constantly exposed to credit risk under the condition of reality, banks face the risk of rapid accumulation. Long term, commercial banks should be accelerated to the capital of light and light cost to do business development, pay more attention to low capital consumption and consumption of capital business, adjust the structure of assets and liabilities and business structure, enhance the ability of innovation and capital pricing ability, enhance the bank’s ability to integrate business and financial management, increase the profit source of interest. In the current domestic lack of high-quality credit projects, in the case of rising bad debts, in order to reduce consumption, reduce the risk bearing capital volume, banks will have to further expand the personal mortgage business and personal consumption credit, to further expand the wealth management, asset management business and intermediate business. At the same time, banks will be more cautious lending to real entities, in order to control the growth of loans, which will inevitably bring a lot of small and medium enterprises as well as overcapacity.
Then, the growth rate of personal credit is higher than the growth rate of public credit also means that the current banking industry to light assets of the business model transformation?
In this regard, the financial bank Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Research Director cenggang in accepting the made in China by news reporters pointed out that personal credit business accounted for more than loans to the public has become a trend, but this trend can not apply the development mode of asset light. In principle, the risk weight of personal loans than public credit low, but asset light operations is more lower from bank credit assets to non credit assets risk weighted assets adjustment, such as sheet adjustment, or to the intermediate business income transition such as not bring credit risk business. To enhance the proportion of personal loans to a certain extent can reflect the transformation of the bank, light assets, the tendency, but can not fully represent the light asset development rules.
Consumption growth and rising loan
In fact, the real impact of personal business and the proportion of public business, is the operation of the entire macroeconomic structure.
Zeng Gang said that in the past few years, the economic structure has undergone significant changes, the fundamental reason for the growth of personal credit or consumer spending in economic growth is rising.
We now have the structure of economic growth from the original by investment and import and export (LED) to a consumption led model of economic growth, especially in the first three quarters of 2016, the contribution of consumption to GDP has more than 70%, the investment contribution to the economy of 36.8%, exports is negative. Contribution to economic growth of high proportion of economic activity means that the demand of credit resources, from the perspective of economic structure, including consumer finance, personal finance has become a hot spot, the development is very fast, and the related financial market and demand will give priority to individuals. Zeng gang said.
Bureau of statistics data also corroborated this point. In the first three quarters of 2016, gross domestic product grew by an annual rate of 6.7%, of which fixed investment rose by an average of $8.2%, and retail sales of social consumer goods rose by as much as 10.4%.
At the same time, has just pointed out: in 2016, the rebound in the property market to speed up the personal housing mortgage credit growth, to a certain extent, but in fact, from the beginning of 2012, the personal credit on the rise, the real estate craze just let the steady growth trend is accelerating.
In 2016, the proportion of new personal assets business has been significantly higher than the public business. A senior management of Dalian rural commercial bank on the China Sankei Shimbun reporter said, consumer escalation in the background, the consumer price index in the index of economic growth in the proportion continues to rise, banks are seeking to retail transformation.
All along, the commercial banks in the retail business and the public are also with the continuous adjustment of the economic structure each one has his good points, and many Corporate Banking Services master also began to turn, trying to carve up the cake retail business.
2016 China banking full sample report shows that in the joint-stock banks, has always been known for Corporate Banking Services of CITIC Bank’s credit line is still in the first row, the balance of corporate loans 1 trillion and 714 billion 792 million yuan, up 12.45% over the previous year.
But even so, the layout of CITIC Bank Retail business is also very obvious tendency. In recent days, CITIC Bank teamed up with Baidu to build the letter approved, Baixin bank became the first direct bank as an independent legal person. Many people in the industry view, this is the first step in the development of CITIC based on its own advantages and Baidu’s technological advantages, powerful alliances to expand the retail business. As early as 2013, also known as Corporate Banking Services Minsheng Bank’s direct banking circle the first to eat crab.
With the fall of Baixin banks, direct banks to apply and set off a wave of small climax. In this regard, has just pointed out, the rise of direct banking is the trend of the retail business development under the new situation, the customer service service used to migrate from offline to online, so the sales channels changed, mobile phone banking is becoming the focus of development.
Direct banking and retail business have a certain relationship, but not all of the retail business. Has just added, but not due to the development of the retail business to do direct banking, but because customers have changed, more willing to accept the service using the Internet, so need to cooperate with the development of direct banking.
Entity Hing is expected to rebound in public services

Now, the real economy is still weak, low tide after the bare stone appearance, the quality of banking assets is still worrying, so, in the face of storm in 2017, commercial banks will be how to layout their asset structure and credit?
The Dalian rural commercial bank executives said the bank will continue to seek asset light transformation, combined with the operation situation of the macro economy, individual business will continue to be the next major development.
Personal credit business will mainly in three aspects: first, individual housing credit business, the market space is still large; second, personal consumer credit, with the upgrading of consumption, consumer demand is still the focus; third, rural personal credit business will have a lot of space, with the national policy of rural areas support, farmers’ consumption demand gradually increased, and the land ownership, can release a large number of rural market wealth. Above senior management said.

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Has just on the Corporate Banking Services outlook is relatively optimistic, he said, Corporate Banking Services and retail business proportion is actually related to the economic structure, the bank in the public and the private business layout, to see the path of economic aggregate demand, according to the proportion of consumption and investment to determine the proportion of.
From this trend, the current focus of economic development will be the construction of infrastructure, and local investment and financing platform of great demand, the bank can participate in, to direct financing and PPP mode so that the next Corporate Banking Services there may be some rebound. Zeng gang said.
At the same time, has just pointed out, from the economic data of 2016 in the two quarter, the three quarter, the economy showed a warming trend, means that companies end in the economic structure in the proportion will rise, so enterprises end demand may be more vigorous, then there is the development of the public will be possible in the areas of business, banking business accounted for than on the rise.
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