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Abstract: for a long time, the public credit business is the big head of the commercial bank’s business layout, however, from the credit data in 2016, the development of public business relative to personal credit is slow.
Newspaper reporter Yang Niwa reports
Although the 2016 Banking Report has not been released, but has been released from the corporate credit data report can be seen.
Recently, punctuation Financial Research Institute released the 2016 Chinese banking full sample report, the 5 state-owned banks, 11 joint-stock banks, 41 city commercial banks, 13 agricultural firms, 10 foreign firms, a total of 80 commercial banks on the operation data of the public and business lines of statistics.
For a long time, the public credit business is the layout of the commercial banking in the big head, however, from the credit data in 2016, the public business is relatively slow development of personal credit.
Weakness in the real economy, the rising rate of non-performing assets, so banks almost naked, to asset light became an inevitable choice for commercial banks.
At the same time, the individual retail business beyond behind Corporate Banking Services, consumer finance is accounted for in the national economy and constantly improve the inevitable impact, with the continuous development of consumer finance and retail business has gradually become the new target of transformation of commercial banks.
Experienced a brief throes of the second half of 2016, the real economy has been showing signs of recovery, promote the development of the real economy, and promote infrastructure construction will be the next focus of macroeconomic development. In this context, what will happen to the credit structure of the banking industry in the new year? Credit will focus on what areas?
The credit loan growth is not the enemy
As the most important source of profit, credit business has been the cornerstone of commercial banks in the public business. According to the recently released 2016 China banking full sample report shows that despite the rising non-performing rate and Macroeconomic weakness of the two mountain, still did not hinder banks continue to develop public credit business steps.
Among them, the five major state-owned commercial banks still have obvious advantages in the credit scale, the average corporate deposits of 5 trillion and 599 billion 864 million yuan, an increase of 8.04%; the average loan balance of the company 5 trillion and 231 billion 283 million yuan, an increase of 4.82%.
City firm is extraordinary performance, the average deposit balance of 190 billion 35 million yuan, an increase of 19.75%, the company’s loan balance of $110 billion 712 million, an increase of 17.8%.
However, it is noteworthy that, despite the company’s loan growth is not reduced, but the growth rate has been significantly lower than the growth rate of personal loans.
Statistics show that the 16 state-owned companies and joint-stock banks for the average loan balance of 2 trillion and 298 billion 377 million yuan, growth of 9.8%, while the average growth of 19.12% personal loans amounted to 1 trillion and 266 billion 286 million yuan, and the average personal loans is higher than the average corporate loans increased by nearly 10 percentage points.
At the same time, according to data from the third quarter of 2016, China’s commercial banks net interest margin has narrowed to $2.24%, compared with the peak of the third quarter of 2012 decreased by 0.53 percentage points. Among them, the five state-owned banks over the same period last year, an average decline of 0.47 percentage points, the average of the shares fell by an average of 0.21 percentage points, the average decline in the proportion of the city of the city of 0.31 percentage points in.
Ampang think-tank (ANBOUND) issued a document pointed out that the deterioration of the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks, the bank development mode is too extensive, high proportion of business capital consumption is too large, in the economic downturn, enterprises constantly exposed to credit risk under the condition of reality, banks face the risk of rapid accumulation. Long term, commercial banks should be accelerated to the capital of light and light cost to do business development, pay more attention to low capital consumption and consumption of capital business, adjust the structure of assets and liabilities and business structure, enhance the ability of innovation and capital pricing ability, enhance the bank’s ability to integrate business and financial management, increase the profit source of interest. In the current domestic lack of high-quality credit projects, in the case of rising bad debts, in order to reduce consumption, reduce the risk bearing capital volume, banks will have to further expand the personal mortgage business and personal consumption credit, to further expand the wealth management, asset management business and intermediate business. At the same time, banks will be more cautious lending to real entities, in order to control the growth of loans, which will inevitably bring a lot of small and medium enterprises as well as overcapacity.
Then, the growth rate of personal credit is higher than the growth rate of public credit also means that the current banking industry to light assets of the business model transformation?
In this regard, the financial bank Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Research Director cenggang in accepting the made in China by news reporters pointed out that personal credit business accounted for more than loans to the public has become a trend, but this trend can not apply the development mode of asset light. In principle, the risk weight of personal loans than public credit low, but asset light operations is more lower from bank credit assets to non credit assets risk weighted assets adjustment, such as sheet adjustment, or to the intermediate business income transition such as not bring credit risk business. To enhance the proportion of personal loans to a certain extent can reflect the transformation of the bank, light assets, the tendency, but can not fully represent the light asset development rules.
Consumption growth and rising loan
In fact, the real impact of personal business and the proportion of public business, is the operation of the entire macroeconomic structure.
Zeng Gang said that in the past few years, the economic structure has undergone significant changes, the fundamental reason for the growth of personal credit or consumer spending in economic growth is rising.
We now have the structure of economic growth from the original by investment and import and export (LED) to a consumption led model of economic growth, especially in the first three quarters of 2016, the contribution of consumption to GDP has more than 70%, the investment contribution to the economy of 36.8%, exports is negative. Contribution to economic growth of high proportion of economic activity means that the demand of credit resources, from the perspective of economic structure, including consumer finance, personal finance has become a hot spot, the development is very fast, and the related financial market and demand will give priority to individuals. Zeng gang said.
Bureau of statistics data also corroborated this point. In the first three quarters of 2016, gross domestic product grew by an annual rate of 6.7%, of which fixed investment rose by an average of $8.2%, and retail sales of social consumer goods rose by as much as 10.4%.
At the same time, has just pointed out: in 2016, the rebound in the property market to speed up the personal housing mortgage credit growth, to a certain extent, but in fact, from the beginning of 2012, the personal credit on the rise, the real estate craze just let the steady growth trend is accelerating.
In 2016, the proportion of new personal assets business has been significantly higher than the public business. A senior management of Dalian rural commercial bank on the China Sankei Shimbun reporter said, consumer escalation in the background, the consumer price index in the index of economic growth in the proportion continues to rise, banks are seeking to retail transformation.
All along, the commercial banks in the retail business and the public are also with the continuous adjustment of the economic structure each one has his good points, and many Corporate Banking Services master also began to turn, trying to carve up the cake retail business.
2016 China banking full sample report shows that in the joint-stock banks, has always been known for Corporate Banking Services of CITIC Bank’s credit line is still in the first row, the balance of corporate loans 1 trillion and 714 billion 792 million yuan, up 12.45% over the previous year.
But even so, the layout of CITIC Bank Retail business is also very obvious tendency. In recent days, CITIC Bank teamed up with Baidu to build the letter approved, Baixin bank became the first direct bank as an independent legal person. Many people in the industry view, this is the first step in the development of CITIC based on its own advantages and Baidu’s technological advantages, powerful alliances to expand the retail business. As early as 2013, also known as Corporate Banking Services Minsheng Bank’s direct banking circle the first to eat crab.
With the fall of Baixin banks, direct banks to apply and set off a wave of small climax. In this regard, has just pointed out, the rise of direct banking is the trend of the retail business development under the new situation, the customer service service used to migrate from offline to online, so the sales channels changed, mobile phone banking is becoming the focus of development.
Direct banking and retail business have a certain relationship, but not all of the retail business. Has just added, but not due to the development of the retail business to do direct banking, but because customers have changed, more willing to accept the service using the Internet, so need to cooperate with the development of direct banking.
Entity Hing is expected to rebound in public services
Now, the real economy is still weak, low tide after the bare stone appearance, the quality of banking assets is still worrying, so, in the face of storm in 2017, commercial banks will be how to layout their asset structure and credit?
The Dalian rural commercial bank executives said the bank will continue to seek asset light transformation, combined with the operation situation of the macro economy, individual business will continue to be the next major development.
Personal credit business will mainly in three aspects: first, individual housing credit business, the market space is still large; second, personal consumer credit, with the upgrading of consumption, consumer demand is still the focus; third, rural personal credit business will have a lot of space, with the national policy of rural areas support, farmers’ consumption demand gradually increased, and the land ownership, can release a large number of rural market wealth. Above senior management said.
Has just on the Corporate Banking Services outlook is relatively optimistic, he said, Corporate Banking Services and retail business proportion is actually related to the economic structure, the bank in the public and the private business layout, to see the path of economic aggregate demand, according to the proportion of consumption and investment to determine the proportion of.
From this trend, the current focus of economic development will be the construction of infrastructure, and local investment and financing platform of great demand, the bank can participate in, to direct financing and PPP mode so that the next Corporate Banking Services there may be some rebound. Zeng gang said.
At the same time, has just pointed out, from the economic data of 2016 in the two quarter, the three quarter, the economy showed a warming trend, means that companies end in the economic structure in the proportion will rise, so enterprises end demand may be more vigorous, then there is the development of the public will be possible in the areas of business, banking business accounted for than on the rise.
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