China semiconductor industry development trend and market size forecast in 2017

近些年来,智能手机成为推动电子行业发展的主要推动力量,然而目前智能手机的渗透率已经处于较高的水平,近几个季度的出货量增速快速下滑。2016年前三季度全球智能手机出货量增速仅为个位数,分别为3.85%、4.25%、5.40%,较以往年份大幅下降。目前智能手机的性能和功能提升速度较以往几年低,产品革新较少,市场趋于饱和。我们预计2017年智能手机出货量的增速有可能进一步下降。
In recent years, the smart phone has become the main driving force to promote the development of the electronics industry, but the current penetration rate of smart phones has been at a high level, the rapid growth in the recent quarter shipments decline. 2016 three quarter global smartphone shipments growth was only single digits, respectively, 3.85%, 4.25%, significantly lower than in previous years. At present, the performance and function of smart phones to enhance the speed of the previous few years, less product innovation, the market tends to saturation. We expect 2017 smartphone shipments growth is likely to decline further.
全球智能手机出货量
Global smartphone shipments
数据来源:公开资料
Data sources: public information
全球PC出货量
Global PC shipments
数据来源:公开资料
Data sources: public information
相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2017-2022年中国半导体市场运行态势及投资战略研究报告》
Related research report: 2017-2022 China semiconductor market operation situation and Investment Strategy Research Report issued by Zhi
个人电脑(PC)的出货量则继续维持下滑的态势,伴随着移动互联网的发展、智能手机等移动终端的普及,个人对PC 的需求持续下降,这导致PC 的出货量将继续低迷。
Personal computer (PC) shipments will continue to maintain the downward trend, with the popularity of mobile terminal development of mobile Internet, intelligent mobile phone and personal demand for PC continued to decline, which led to PC shipments will continue to slump.
在智能手机和PC 市场都难以推动未来电子行业的情况下,市场需要新的增长点。目前看来汽车电子、工业半导体、物联网将成为电子行业在未来较长时间内的重要增长点,其中汽车电子预计将成为近期的重要增长点。据预测,2017 年度汽车半导体的市场份额将由2013 年的8%提升到15%。

In the case of smart phones and PC markets are difficult to promote the future of the electronics industry, the market needs new growth points. It appears that automotive electronics, industrial semiconductors, networking will become an important growth point in the electronics industry in the future for a long period of time, which is expected to become an important growth point of automotive electronics. It is predicted that in the annual market share of automotive semiconductors will be increased from 8% in 2013 to $15%.
2016年度,半导体设备的订单需求旺盛,北美半导体设备订单出货比(BB ratio)和日本半导体设备订单出货比大部分时间大于1,同时半导体设备的订单额也处于近几年来的较高点,半导体行业正经历一波投资热潮。

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In 2016, the semiconductor equipment orders demand, the North American semiconductor equipment orders shipped (BB ratio) and the ratio of Japanese semiconductor equipment orders shipped than most of the time more than 1, while the amount of orders of semiconductor devices is also at a high point in recent years, the semiconductor industry is experiencing a wave of investment boom.
2012-2016年北美半导体设备订单额和出货额(百万美元)
2012-2016 North America semiconductor equipment orders and shipments (US $million)
数据来源:公开资料
Data sources: public information
2012-2016年日本半导体设备订单额和出货额(百万日元)
2012-2016 Japan semiconductor equipment orders and shipments (million yen)
外包服务客户越来越重视数据安全保护,越来越精明的客户要求将数据保护写入外包合约,并要求服务商提供更多安全保障措施。
数据来源:公开资料
Data sources: public information
半导体投资的主要增长因素是中国对集成电路产业的投资增长,同时NAND 厂商目前在3D NAND 领域的投资也有快速增长。半导体市场方面,市场销售开始复苏:2016 年上半年,销售额同比为负增长;从6 月份开始,降幅开始持续收窄,到9 月份实现同比正增长。
Semiconductor investment is the main factor in the growth of China’s investment in the integrated circuit industry, while NAND manufacturers are currently in the field of 3D NAND investment is also rapid growth. Semiconductor market, the market began to recover: in the first half of 2016, sales were negative growth year on year, from the beginning of June, the decline continued to narrow, to achieve positive growth in September.
2012-2016年全球半导体月销售额
2012-2016 global semiconductor monthly sales
数据来源:公开资料
Data sources: public information
世界半导体贸易组织(WSTS)最新预计2016年全球半导体销售额同比将微量下跌0.1%,比春季时预测的2.4%降幅收窄,其中美洲和欧洲地区的销售额有较大的降幅,而日本和亚太地区则保持正增长。WSTS还预计2017年和2018年全球半导体销售额将实现正增长,增速分别为3.3%和2.3%,各个地区都将保持正增长。产品类别方面,传感器、模拟电路的增长率较高,尤其是传感器,在2016年预计同比增长22.6%。
The World Semiconductor Trade Organization (WSTS) latest 2016 global semiconductor sales fell 0.1% year-on-year to trace, narrowed than spring predicted a 2.4% decline, the American and European sales have a larger decline, while Japan and the Asia Pacific region to maintain positive growth. WSTS is also expected in 2017 and in 2018, global semiconductor sales will achieve positive growth, the growth rate was 3.3% and 2.3%, each region will maintain positive growth. Product categories, sensors, analog circuit growth rate is high, especially sensors, in 2016 is expected to grow 22.6%.
世界半导体贸易组织对2016年到2018年全球半导体销售额的预测
World Semiconductor Trade Organization forecasts global semiconductor sales from 2016 to 2018
集成电路行业是信息产业的核心,关系着我国的信息安全,是提高国家核心产业竞争力的必要条件。另外一方面,集成电路又是一个资本壁垒和技术壁垒非常高的行业。集成电路行业的发展遵循着摩尔定律,IC 制造行业每两年左右就要实现一次技术制程上的提升,技术更新速度特别快;IC 设计、封测、设备和材料等行业则需要进行同步发展。为了跟上技术发展的速度,避免在激烈竞争中被淘汰,集成电路企业每年都要投入大量的资本进行生产线的维护与更新、新产品新技术的研发。
IC industry is the core of the information industry, which is related to the information security of our country. On the other hand, the integrated circuit is also a capital barriers and technical barriers are very high industry. The development of the integrated circuit industry in accordance with Moore’s law, IC manufacturing industry every two years or so to achieve a technological process of ascension, technology updates faster; IC design, packaging, equipment and materials and other industries need synchronous development. In order to keep up with the speed of technological development, and avoid being eliminated in the fierce competition, the integrated circuit enterprises to invest a lot of capital every year to maintain and update the production line, the development of new products and new technologies.
台积电每年的资本性支出
Taiwan’s annual capital expenditure
数据来源:公开资料
Data sources: public information
高通公司每年的研发费用支出
Qualcomm Corp annual R & D expenses
数据来源:公开资料
Data sources: public information
对于中国等后进国家要发展集成电路产业,则需要政府给予企业政策和资金上的支持:企业在发展初期,单纯依靠其自身收入无法维持资本投入的需求,从而无法在全球市场上进行竞争。从台湾和韩国发展集成电路产业的经验来看,政府的支持对行业的发展壮大起到非常关键的作用。
For Chinese and other backward countries to the development of the integrated circuit industry, is the enterprise need the government to give policy and financial support: enterprises in the early stages of development, relying on their own income to maintain capital investment demand, thus unable to compete in the global marketplace. From the experience of the development of the integrated circuit industry in Taiwan and South Korea, the government’s support for the development of the industry has played a very important role.
政策上,2014 年6 月国务院发布了《国家集成电路产业推进纲要》,从政策上完善落实一系列支持集成电路产业发展的措施,并设置了分阶段目标。资金支持上,2014 年9 月国家集成电路产业投资基金(俗称“大基金”)成立,主要用于集成电路产业的投资,支持行业的发展壮大。截止至2016 年10月,大基金首期已经募资1387 亿元,已经进行了40 多笔投资,已投及承诺投资额已接近700 亿元,带动社会融资超过1500 亿元。
Policy, in June 2014 the State Council issued the National IC industry to promote the program, from the policy to improve the implementation of a series of measures to support the development of the integrated circuit industry, and set a phased goal. Financial support, in September 2014 the national integrated circuit industry investment fund (commonly known as the big fund) was established, mainly for the integrated circuit industry investment, support the development of the industry. As of October 2016, the first phase of the fund has been raised 138 billion 700 million yuan, has carried out a total of more than and 40 investment, investment and commitment has invested nearly $70 billion, driven by social financing over $150 billion.
国家集成电路产业投资基金的投资项目
Investment projects of the national integrated circuit industry investment fund
大基金的成立,带动了部分地方政府对集成电路产业的资金支持,目前部分地方政府也设立了地方的集成电路产业基金,支持当地的IC 产业发展。以国内最大的晶圆代工厂商中芯国际为例,中芯国际目前在北京、上海、天津、深圳以及意大利一共拥有3 座12 寸晶圆厂和4 座8 寸晶圆厂,其中包括于2016 年新收购的意大利LFoundry 的股份。2016 年10 月和11 月,又分别在上海和深圳启动了两条新的12 寸集成电路生产线;除此之外,公司还将对原有的北京12 晶圆寸厂、上海12 寸晶圆厂、深圳8 寸晶圆厂进行扩张产能。在国家政策和资金支持的推动下,中芯国际近两年的资本性支出增长迅速,反映了国内IC制造业快速发展的趋势。
The establishment of large funds, driven by the local government’s financial support for the integrated circuit industry, at present, some local governments have also set up a local IC industry fund to support the development of the local IC industry. The largest international foundry core as an example, SMIC is currently in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Italy has a total of 3 12 inch Fabs and 4 8 inch wafer factory in 2016, including the newly acquired Italy LFoundry shares. In October 2016 and November, respectively in Shanghai and Shenzhen launched two new 12 inch integrated circuit production line; in addition, the company will also be on the original 12 inch wafer factory in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen 12 inch Fab 8 inch wafer factory expansion capacity. Driven by national policies and financial support, SMIC’s capital expenditure has increased rapidly in the past two years, reflecting the rapid development trend of domestic IC manufacturing industry.
2011-2016年中芯国际的资本性支出
Capital expenditure of SMIC in 2011-2016
数据来源:公开资料
Data sources: public information
近两年来,智能手机带来的半导体发展浪潮已经过去,物联网、汽车电子、5G等将成为未来新的增长动力。在此背景下,半导体厂商往往通过出售资产、对外并购等活动来调整自己的经营方向,行业内大规模的并购浪潮一直在延续。2016年,先后发生了软银以322亿美元收购ARM、高通以470亿美元收购恩智浦的大型并购。最近两年半导体行业内无论从并购次数、还是并购规模上都远超以往。
Over the past two years, the development of smart phones have led to the wave of the past, the Internet of things, automotive electronics, 5G, will become the new growth momentum in the future. In this context, semiconductor manufacturers tend to sell their assets, mergers and acquisitions and other activities to adjust their business direction, the industry has been a large wave of mergers and acquisitions. In 2016, Softbank has undergone large-scale mergers and acquisitions to $32 billion 200 million acquisition of ARM, Qualcomm’s $47 billion acquisition of nxp. In the last two years, the number of mergers and acquisitions, or mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor industry is far more than ever before.
近两年全球集成电路产业的重大并购
Global mergers and acquisitions in the world over the past two years
半导体行业是一个高技术门槛的行业,业内公司通常都具有十几年甚至数十年的技术积累。国内的半导体企业相比国际同行,普遍存在技术积累不足的问题,在国际并购浪潮盛行的背景下,采用直接收购国外优质企业和资产的方式,也是一条快速发展的途径。
Semiconductor industry is a high-tech threshold of the industry, the industry companies usually have more than ten years or even decades of technology accumulation. The domestic semiconductor companies compared to international peers, widespread lack of accumulation of technology problems in international mergers and acquisitions under the background of prevailing, the direct acquisition of foreign enterprises and high-quality assets, is also a fast development way.
如何保障信息安全控制措施的有效性
当前在国家大基金的带动下,政府资本和社会资本积极支持国内企业走出国门对外收购,而国内外资本市场的估值水平差异也推动国内企业对外收购。近年来我国企业积极走出国门,已经开展了多项收购活动。
At present, under the impetus of the national fund, government capital and social capital actively support domestic enterprises to go abroad for foreign acquisitions, while the domestic and international capital market valuation level differences also promote the acquisition of domestic enterprises. In recent years, China’s enterprises to actively go out of the country, has launched a number of acquisitions.
近年来国内企业重大的海外收购案例
In recent years, major overseas acquisitions of domestic enterprises
近年来,我国集成电路行业整体上以20%左右的增速在增长,接下来几年行业在政策支持、产业趋势、国际并购浪潮的带动下,预计将会持续增长。
In recent years, China’s IC industry as a whole on the growth rate of around 20% in the next few years, the industry in the policy support, industry trends, driven by the wave of international mergers and acquisitions, is expected to continue to grow.
国内集成电路行业近年来发展情况
The development of domestic IC industry in recent years
文章转自微信号:微电子制造 中国产业信息网
Article from the micro signal: Microelectronics Manufacturing China Industrial Information Network
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If any infringement, please contact us, we will deal with the first time. The article is for reference purposes only.
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