McKinsey announced China artificial intelligence report, coincides with the time!

随着人口红利的快速消失,中国急需寻找新的增长引擎。基于人工智能的自动化可以提升生产力,帮助中国实现其经济发展目标。人工智能领域的全球风投从2012 年的5.89亿美元猛增至2016年的50多亿美元。
麦肯锡的中国人工智能的未来之路报告书,报告梳理了人工智能技术发展历程,并分析了该技术对于中国社会发展可能起到的作用,预测相关产业及经济政策框架。
The road to the future of artificial intelligence China McKinsey report, the report reviews the development of artificial intelligence technology process, and analyzes the technology for Chinese social development may play a role, prediction of related industries and economic policy framework.
1拐点来临
1 inflection point approaching
人工智能不同技术领域的商业化程度
The degree of commercialization in the field of artificial intelligence
AlphaGo 成功击败人类世界围棋冠军李世石,人工智能这个科幻小说一般的概念似乎一夜之间从虚无缥缈的幻想成为了现实。
AlphaGo successfully defeated the human world chess champion Li Shishi, between the concept of artificial intelligence science fiction seems to be a night from fantasy into reality with no reality whatever.
传统的软件程序由人类编写,包含具体的指令要求。人工智能的工作模式完全不同。它们依据通用的学习策略,可以读取海量的“大数据”,并从中发现规律、联系和洞见。因此人工智能能够根据新数据自动调整,而无需重设程序。
Traditional software programs are written by humans, including specific instructions. The working mode of artificial intelligence is completely different. They are based on a common learning strategy, you can read a large amount of big data, and found that the law, contact and insight. Therefore, artificial intelligence can automatically adjust according to the new data, without the need to reset the program.

《王者荣耀》排位赛新段位匹配不了 排位赛等级规则

事实上, 20 世纪五六十年代,人工智能的理论就已经初步形成,但由于技术未能实现突破性进展,人工智能无法达成预期效果,因此陷入了一段沉寂期。
安全月安全生产教育动画片——小李的一天
In fact, in twentieth Century 50s and 60s, the theory of artificial intelligence has been formed, but due to technical failure to achieve a breakthrough, artificial intelligence can not reach the expected effect, in a period of silence.
往后数十年间虽然不乏成功案例(如 IBM 的超级计算机“深蓝”击败国际象棋冠军加里·卡斯帕罗夫),但因为人工智能在现实世界的成功案例太过孤立,所以不足以支撑大规模商业化。
For several decades although there are successful cases (such as the super computer IBM blue beat chess champion Gary Kasparov), but because the success of artificial intelligence in the real world is too isolated, so it is not enough to support large-scale commercial.
现在,我们正处于人工智能复兴浪潮,数据收集及整理 、 算法以及高性能计算等技术的突飞猛进促成了革命性进步。利用机器学习,人工智能系统获得了归纳推理和决策能力,并实现了某些商业化落地,可以担当客服、管理物流、监控工厂机械、优化能源使用以及分析医学资料;而深度学习更将这一能力推向了更高的层次。
Now, we are in the revival of artificial intelligence, data collection and collation, algorithms and high-performance computing technology, such as the rapid progress of the revolutionary progress. The use of machine learning, artificial intelligence system to obtain the inductive reasoning and decision-making ability, and to achieve a certain commercial floor, can serve as the customer service management, energy use and analysis of medical data, factory machinery, logistics monitoring and optimization; deep learning will be more this ability to a higher level.
变革不仅发生在理论前沿。被视为未来超级智能系统的先锋——各类应用机器学习技术的分析工具已现身市场。金融、医疗、制造等行业应用发展迅速,人工智能领域的全球风投也从2012年的5.89亿美元猛增至2016年的50多亿美元。麦肯锡预计,至2025 年人工智能应用市场总值将达到1270亿美元。
Change not only in the theoretical front. As a pioneer in the future of super intelligent systems – analytical tools for various types of machine learning technologies have emerged. Financial, medical, manufacturing and other industries, the rapid development of the application of artificial intelligence in the field of global venture capital soared from $589 million in 2012 to $about 5000000000 in 2016. McKinsey predicts that by 2025 the total market value of artificial intelligence applications will reach $127 billion.
未来,人工智能可成为应对一些社会核心挑战的强大工具。在医疗领域,人工智能将极大提升我们分析人类基因组和为患者开发个性化治疗方案的能力,甚至大大加快治愈癌症、阿茲海默症和其他疾病的进程。在环保领域,人工智能能够分析气候特征并大规模降低能耗,帮助人类更好地监控和应对气候变化问题。人工智能甚至可以在地球以外地区发挥作用,他日或助力人类探索火星及外太空。
In the future, artificial intelligence can become a powerful tool to deal with some of the core challenges of society. In the medical field, artificial intelligence will greatly enhance our ability to analyze the human genome and develop personalized treatment programs for patients, and even greatly accelerate the process of curing cancer, Alzheimer’s disease and other diseases. In the field of environmental protection, artificial intelligence can analyze climate characteristics and reduce energy consumption in a large scale. Artificial intelligence can even play a role in the area outside of the earth, or help the future human exploration of Mars and the outer space.
麦肯锡全球研究院近期的一份报告对全球800多种职业所涵盖的2000多项工作内容进行分析后发现,全球约50%的工作内容可以通过改进现有技术实现自动化。当然,技术可行性只是影响自动化速度及程度的一个因素,还有其他因素需要考虑,包括研发和应用成本、劳动力市场供需、经济效益,以及社会和政府监管部门的接受度。
More than 2000 contents of a recent report by the McKinsey Global Institute covers 800 of the world’s various occupation analysis found that about 50% of the world’s work can be achieved by improving the existing technology of automation. Of course, the technical feasibility is only one factor affecting the speed and degree of automation, there are other factors to consider, including the research and application of cost, the labor market supply and demand, economic benefits, social acceptance, and government supervision department.
综合上述因素,麦肯锡全球研究院的这份自动化研究报告指出,在现今所有工作内容之中,过半会在2055年左右自动化,但这过程存在诸多变量,误差在20年左右。
The above factors, the Automation Research Report by the McKinsey Global Institute pointed out that at present all the work content, half automation in about 2055, but this process there are many variables, the error in about 20 years.
2中国已成全球AI发展中心之一学术方面,仅在2015 年,中美两国在学术期刊上发表的相关论文合计近1万份,而英国、印度、德国和日本发表的学术研究文章总和也只相当于其一半。其中,中国的人工智能发展多由科技企业推动引领,如自动化私人助理、自动驾驶汽车等。这得益于大量的搜索数据和丰富的产品线,一些互联网企业走在了自然语言处理、图像和语音识别等技术前沿。但值得注意的是,虽然中国在人工智能的论文数量方面超过了美国,但中国学者的研究影响力尚不及美国或英国同行。
2 Chinese has become one of the world’s AI Center for the development of the academic field, only in 2015, two related papers published in academic journals totaling nearly 10 thousand copies, while the sum of the academic research in Britain, India, Germany and Japan published is only equivalent to half of the. Among them, the development of China’s artificial intelligence is driven by the leading enterprises of science and technology, such as automated personal assistant, automatic driving cars, etc.. This is due to a large number of search data and a wealth of product lines, some Internet companies in the forefront of Natural Language Processing, image and voice recognition technology. But it is worth noting that, although the number of papers in the field of artificial intelligence in China than the United States, but the influence of Chinese scholars is still less than the United States or British counterparts.
中国人工智能论文数量以及影响力
The number and influence of Chinese artificial intelligence
人工智能生态系统方面,美国也更为完善和活跃,创业公司数量远超中国。由研究机构、大学及私营企业共同组成的生态系统庞大、创新且多元。硅谷在科技领域日积月累的强劲实力形成了强大而难以复制的优势。
Artificial intelligence ecosystem, the United States is also more perfect and active, far more than the number of start-up companies in china. By the research institutions, universities and private enterprises constitute a huge ecosystem, innovation and diversity. Silicon Valley in the field of science and technology accumulated strong strength to form a strong and difficult to replicate the advantages.
美国的AI生态更完善和活跃

The United States AI ecological more perfect and active
除了技术储备和创业生态,中国在发展人工智能的时候还有两个问题需要考虑:
In addition to technical reserves and entrepreneurial ecology, China in the development of artificial intelligence, there are two issues to consider:

大华股份新添战略合作伙伴 携手打造信息安全产业高地

拦在中国AI路上的大山
Stopped in the mountains of China AI Road
数据环境有待放开
Data environment to be released
中国政府数据开放度为全球第93名
Chinese government data openness of the world’s ninety-third
首先,尽管中国的科技巨头能够通过其专有平台获得海量数据,但在创建一个标准统一、跨平台分享的数据友好型生态系统方面,中国仍落后于美国。其次,全球各国都已意识到开放政府数据库有助于促进私营领域创新,但中国政府数据的开放度仍极为有限。最后,对跨境数据流通的限制也使得中国在全球合作中处于不利地位。
First of all, while China’s technology giants can get huge amounts of data through its proprietary platform, but in the creation of a unified standard, cross platform sharing of data friendly ecosystem, China still lags behind the United states. Second, countries around the world have come to realize that open government databases help to promote innovation in the private sector, but the openness of the Chinese government data is still very limited. Finally, the restrictions on cross-border data flow also make China in a disadvantageous position in global cooperation.
人才市场紧张
Talent market tension
应用层面而言,中国的算法发展程度与其他国家并无太大差距。然而,中国的研究人员在基础算法研发领域仍远远落后于英美同行。一个主要原因就是人才短缺。美国半数以上的数据科学家拥有10年以上的工作经验,而在中国,超过 40%的数据科学家工作经验尚不足5年 。中国在人才方面的持续努力将至关重要。
Application level, the development of China’s algorithm is not much difference with other countries. However, Chinese researchers in the field of basic algorithm development is still far behind the British and American counterparts. One of the main reasons is the shortage of talent. More than half of the data scientists in the United States have more than 10 years of work experience, while in China, more than 40% of the data scientists work experience is less than 5 years. China’s continued efforts in talent will be crucial.
目前,中国只有不到 30 所大学的研究实验室专注于人工智能,输出人才的数量远远无法满足人工智能企业的用人需求。此外,中国的人工智能科学家大多集中于计算机视觉和语音识别等领域,造成其他领域的人才相对匮乏。如果中国大学对学生提出更高的数学和统计学要求,并且集中资源发展该领域全球前沿研究,人工智能的发展必将受益匪浅。另一个值得思考的方向是改进现有的科研经费分配模式来推进创新。
硬件短板
Hardware short board
高运算速度的计算技术是发展尖端人工智能技术的重中之重;特种处理器,如可以处理大量复杂计算的 GPU,对人工智能的发展格外重要。而其耗能长期以来,中国的微晶片严重依赖进口,部分类型的高端半导体则几乎完全依靠进口水平则决定着人工智能解决方案能否实现大规模商业化。
High computing speed is the most important technology in the development of cutting-edge artificial intelligence technology; special processors, such as GPU can handle a large number of complex computing, the development of artificial intelligence is particularly important. And its energy consumption for a long time, China’s heavily dependent on imports of microchips, some types of high-end semiconductor is almost entirely dependent on the level of imports determines whether artificial intelligence solutions to achieve large-scale commercialization.
2015 年,美国政府禁止了英特尔、英伟达和 AMD这三家全球最大的芯片供应商向中国机构出售高端超级电脑芯片。这一禁令显示了中国在半导体方面的自主研发能力对于未来人工智能发展十分重要。
In 2015, the U.S. government banned Intel, NVIDIA and AMD three of the world’s largest chip supplier to sell high-end super computer chip to Chinese mechanism. The ban shows that China’s independent research and development capabilities in the semiconductor is very important for the future development of artificial intelligence.
为应对这一局面,中国政府在 2014 年出台了《国家集成电路产业发展推进纲要》以及“中国制造 2025”行动纲领。中国政府还成立了国家集成电路产业投资基金,目前募资已超过 200 亿美元。相关行动已初见成效:2016 年 6 月神威?太湖之光超级计算机问世,成为世界上运算速度最快的超级计算机,使用的是中国自主知识产权的处理器。政府的前期投资可以产生显著的涟漪效应,鼓励私营企业的积极参与。
In response to this situation, the Chinese government in 2014 issued a national outline for the development of integrated circuit industry, as well as the made in China 2025 action plan. The Chinese government has also set up a national integrated circuit industry investment fund, currently raising more than $20 billion. The relevant action has been noticed: June 2016 Taihu light Kamui? The advent of super computer, super computer became the world’s fastest, is the use of Chinese independent intellectual property rights of the processor. The initial investment of the government can produce significant ripple effect and encourage the active participation of private enterprises.
复杂的社会及经济问题
Complex social and economic problems
劳动力市场需求与冲击
Labor market demand and impact
在过去数十年,中国因“人口红利”受益良多,劳动力的扩张大大促进了经济增长。但老龄化正使中国逐渐失去这一推动力。中国的劳动年龄人口最早将在2024 年达到峰值,并在之后的 50 年中减少五分之一。
In the past few decades, China has benefited greatly from the demographic dividend, which has greatly promoted economic growth. But ageing is making China lose its momentum. China’s working age population will peak in 2024, and by 1\/5 in the next 50 years.
这一人口结构变化趋势意味着在当前生产力水平的基础上,中国将缺乏足够的劳动力以维持其经济增长。拉动经济增长唯一可行的方式就是大幅推动生产力增长,如引进人工智能。麦肯锡全球研究院预测,根据应用速度的不同, 基于人工智能的自动化为中国带来的生产力提升每年可贡献0.8至1.4个百分点的经济增长。
This demographic change means that, on the basis of the current level of productivity, China will lack enough labor to sustain its economic growth. The only practical way to boost economic growth is to boost productivity growth, such as the introduction of artificial intelligence. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, based on the speed of the application of artificial intelligence, automation brings productivity gains for China to contribute 0.8 to 1.4 percentage points per year of economic growth.
人工智能有大幅提升生产力增长的潜力,但代价可能是收入差距的进一步拉大,包括城市发展不平衡的加剧。总而言之,人工智能将推动形成所谓的“技能偏好型科技变革”——即数字技能将特别受到重视,而对中低端技能劳动力的需求将缩小。
Artificial intelligence has the potential to significantly increase productivity growth, but the price may be further widening the income gap, including the imbalance of urban development. All in all, artificial intelligence will drive the formation of what is known as skill – oriented technological change – that digital skills will be of particular importance, and that demand for skilled workers will be reduced.
中国目前从事可自动化工作的劳动力人口超过其他国家。麦肯锡全球研究院预测中国 51%的工作内容有自动化潜力,这将对相当于 3.94 亿全职人力工时的冲击。但这并不意味着如今的高端工种能够完全免受冲击。比如,医生之类专业人士的部分工作也可能被自动化,而医生的工作内容将会更专注于与人的沟通和互动。
China is currently engaged in the work of automation more than other countries. McKinsey Global Institute predicts that 51% of China’s work content has the potential for automation, which will be equivalent to the impact of the equivalent of 394 million full-time human hours. But that does not mean that today’s high-end jobs can be completely free from shocks. For example, part of the work of a professional such as a doctor may also be automated, and the doctor’s work will be more focused on communication and interaction with people.
社会效益与隐忧
Social benefits and worries
安全是一项持续的过程,公司还需定期举行各类安全意识培训,以便能及时将最新的安全威胁和应对方法告知员工。
人工智能发展前景广阔,可用于改善医疗、环境、安全和教育,提升民生福祉。与此同时,由于它模糊了物理现实、数字和个人的界限,衍生出了复杂的伦理、法律及安全问题。随着人工智能的逐渐普及,需要审慎管理来应对这一转变。
Artificial intelligence development prospects, can be used to improve health care, environment, safety and education, improve people’s well-being. At the same time, due to the blurring of physical reality, digital and personal boundaries, complex ethical, legal, and security issues are derived. With the gradual popularization of artificial intelligence, the need for careful management to deal with this change.
许多现有用例展现出了人工智能解决社会问题的潜力,如环境变化预测、节能减排、智能医疗、数字化医疗档案、更为安全高效的交通系统、智慧城市、自动驾驶等。
Many of the existing cases show artificial intelligence to solve social problems such as environmental change, forecasting potential, energy saving and emission reduction, intelligent medical, digital medical records, more safe and efficient transportation system, intelligent city and automatic driving.
然而,除了这些潜力外,管理具备自主学习和决策能力的机器也是一份重艰巨的责任。
However, in addition to these potentials, the management of independent learning and decision-making ability of the machine is also a heavy responsibility.
首先:谁拥有个人数据?数据应以何种方式共享?面对日趋严峻的网络安全攻击又该如何保护数据?其次,人工智能可能在决策过程中产生无意识的歧视。由于现实世界存在着各种形式的种族歧视、性别歧视和偏见,输入算法中的数据也可能附带这些特征。而当机器学习算法学习了这些带有偏见的训练数据,也就“继承”了偏见。此外还有很多地缘政治的影响,如国家间的“数字鸿沟”,“自动化武器”风险等。
First of all: who owns personal data? How should data be shared? Faced with the increasingly serious network security attacks and how to protect the data? Secondly, artificial intelligence may produce unconscious discrimination in the decision-making process. Because of the existence of various forms of racial discrimination, gender discrimination and Prejudice in the real world, the data in the input algorithm may also be accompanied by these features. And when the machine learning algorithm is trained on these biased training data, it inherits the bias. There are also a number of geopolitical implications, such as the digital divide between nations, automated weapons, etc..
除伦理问题之外,人工智能在社会的普及更会产生诸多法律层面的影响。如果人工智能的决策导致意外甚至犯罪,谁应当对其负责?人工智能创作的知识产权归谁所有?一旦人工智能拥有超级能力,又该用哪些措施进行监管?人工智能研发人员有哪些法律权利与义务?
In addition to ethical issues, the popularity of artificial intelligence in the community will have a lot of impact on the legal level. Who should be responsible for the artificial intelligence that leads to accidents and even crimes? Who is the intellectual property of artificial intelligence? Once artificial intelligence has super power, and what measures should be used to monitor? What are the legal rights and obligations of R & D personnel?
要建立一个完善的法律及伦理框架,仍有许多问题尚待充分探讨。
To establish a sound legal and ethical framework, there are still many issues to be fully explored.
中国AI战略重点的五大预测
Five prediction of China’s AI strategic focus
建立完善的数据生态系统
Establish a sound data ecosystem
数据是未来的货币。例如在医学研究中,如果没有全球海量临床数据的支持,人工智能的潜力就无法得到充分挖掘。过多的桎梏将会束缚中国的人工智能企业,导致其丧失开发具有全球竞争力产品的能力。
Data is the currency of the future. For example, in medical research, without the support of the world’s vast clinical data, the potential of artificial intelligence can not be fully excavated. Too many shackles will be bound by China’s artificial intelligence business, resulting in the loss of the ability to develop products with global competitiveness.
中国可以通过建立并落实数据规范、向私营领域开放公共数据、鼓励跨国数据交流来构建一个更为完善的数据生态系统。
China can build a more complete data ecosystem by establishing and implementing data standards, opening public data to the private sector, and encouraging cross-border data exchange.
首先, 建立 数据标准是进行广泛数据分享和实现系统间交互操作的重要前提条件,有助于提升物联网及人工智能技术的价值。潜在的庞大数据体量是中国的天然优势,使中国有机会在国际上更好地发挥领头羊的作用。而且,在与中文语言相关的数据规范制定方面,中国也应起到主导作用。
First of all, the establishment of data standards is an important prerequisite for a wide range of data sharing and interoperability between systems, and help to improve the value of things and artificial intelligence technology. Potential huge data volume is China’s natural advantage, so that China has the opportunity to play a better role in the international leader. Moreover, China should play a leading role in the development of Chinese language related data specification.
对于特定行业数据,政府可要求现有的监管机构制定必要规则。比如美国证券交易委员会在 2009 年出台规定,要求所有上市公司使用 XBRL(可扩展商业报告语言)格式发布财报,确保所有公开数据的机器可读性。

国美做手机?这可能是手机圈2016最大的笑话

For specific industry data, the government may require existing regulatory agencies to develop the necessary rules. For example, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 2009 issued a requirement for all listed companies to use XBRL (Extensible Business Reporting Language) format to publish earnings, to ensure that all the data of the machine readable.
其次,为了提升数据的多样性,政府应提高公共数据的开放程度 ,并带头建设行业数据库。这些举措同时能够提升公共服务质量、提供政策制定洞见,从而带来额外益处。比如纽约市政府就建立了公开数据门户网站,为市民提供经济发展、医疗、休闲、公共服务等领域的数据。2012 年纽约市还颁布了《开放数据法案》,要求政府部门使用机器可读取的数据并建立 API(应用程序编程接口),方便软件研发人员直接连接政府系统并获取数据。
Secondly, in order to improve the diversity of the data, the government should improve the openness of public data, and take the lead in the construction of the industry database. These initiatives can also improve the quality of public services, provide policy insight, resulting in additional benefits. For example, the New York municipal government on the establishment of an open data portal for the public to provide economic development, health care, leisure, public services and other areas of data. In 2012, New York city has also promulgated the open data act, requires government departments to use the machine readable data and the establishment of API (Application Programming Interface), convenient software R & D personnel directly connected government system and access to data.
最后,中国政府还需考虑 国 际 数据流的价值。麦肯锡全球研究院的调查表明,2014 年,跨境数据流为全球经济创造了 2.8 万亿美元的价值,对经济增长的贡献已经超过实体贸易。此外,研究还指出,由于经济体需要接触全球的思想、研究、科技、人才和最佳实践案例,数据流入和流出都能十分重要 。
Finally, the Chinese government needs to consider the value of international data flow. According to a survey by the McKinsey Global Institute, in 2014, the cross-border data flow created a value of $2 trillion and 800 billion for the global economy. In addition, the study also pointed out that because the economy needs to contact the global thinking, research, science and technology, talent and best practice cases, data inflows and outflows are very important.

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